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Keynes believed in second thoughts. He did not believe in mental standstills. He knew that most of his ideas had only transient value. He wanted to dismantle conventional habits and assumptions, and to rethink previous systems of thought — including his own. He had the courage to treat economics as a matter of time and temper.

A generation is usually reckoned as spanning a quarter of a century, but he saw that it took half that time to turn a schoolchild into an adult with attitudes, choices and responses that could not be predicted. Many of the Nazi storm troopers who supported Hitler in had not been old enough for school when the first world war ended. It takes only a dozen years for new states of mind to prompt new quandaries, expectations and pressures of which political leaders must take account.

Keynes was the economist who thought more of generations than of immutable rules. Seven things you may not know about John Maynard Keynes. On second thoughts … John Maynard Keynes aimed to dismantle assumptions.

Topics Economics John Maynard Keynes features. To move the economy toward full employment, Keynes argued, the state had to intervene. Consumers will buy less and entrepreneurs will invest less if they expect that the economy will be depressed for the foreseeable future.

In a radical shift from the view of most economists at the time and for decades later, Keynes thought that these expectations in people were not fully rational, but were essentially based on their psychology, or how optimistic they were feeling. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits — a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.

With this in mind, Keynes saw government spending as crucial not only to sustain consumer and business consumption, but to nudge individuals so that their confidence in the economy stayed high, to avoid a collapse in their expectations. This hinges on a view of human decision-making that is close to the view held by behavioural economists today Keynes may well have influenced one of the key texts in the field, though this was never explicitly acknowledged.

Human behaviour is not — or not only — the result of rational calculation using the information available, but is affected by things like emotions, false perceptions and rules of thumb. After all, in a world where people are completely rational, increasing government spending would be much less effective. People would see their governments getting into more debt to increase public spending and they would know that taxes would probably rise in future to cover the cost.

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