However, these installments require more effort to sell to a league of change-resistant fantasy casuals, so be prepared for some pushback. Trustworthy stats I like to include: tackles for loss, passes defended, and defensive stops. Solo tackles are not reliably tracked Google its origins , so I don't advise using them. These will be harder to sell to change-resistant leaguemates.
I like to do this because I feel like creating opportunity should be worth a point, even if the defense doesn't come away with the ball. Tackles For Loss are worth. Often overlooked, I regard a TFL the same as a sack but occurring on rush attempts and screen passes.
We'll have to dial this back later, probably with negative points - fun stuff. Passes Defended are worth. Also overlooked, but more reliably recorded in box scores than tackles, are passes defended. Yikes again, but this setting is great for establishing score variance among DEF units. Why Tackles as a stat is unreliable Sports Illustrated, Three and Out Drives are worth.
Every change of possession presents an opportunity for a defense to make a stop, and that is another WIN moment that deserves some value. These occur with regularity every week, so we need to keep their value under harsh regulation. Fourth-Down Stops are worth 1 point.
While not actually a turnover, a stop on 4th Down is definitely a WIN for the defense, and deserves some value.
Those with better developed sense of logic know there are many instances of statistical defects that go ignored in every system. It's unavoidable and regardless of whether the game is on the line or not, a 4th Down Stop is a defensive achievement, worthy of at least a half-value turnover. If you turn on all these unconventional settings, here are the results you would see from last year:.
Whoa, there, bucko! Those point totals are wayyyyy too high! Time to throttle back down with negative mechanisms. How to do it? Revisit those pesky negative tiers, of course, but with more linear consequences! We'll apply negative points for Points Allowed and Yards Allowed to fine-tune our settings and to create more variance, but we only want to punish a defense for poor play, not average play, so it's time for research.
Here's a table showing average yards gained per team per game in recent seasons. So if that's an average day for a defensive unit, let's not trend negative until we're teetering around these benchmarks. Let's knock -2 points per yards allowed after yards allowed. If you're like me, you're surprised it's such a small change. But it proves that good defenses don't give up a heap of yards per game.
Shoulda seen that coming Let's move on for now, because we don't want to anger the horde of Yards Allowed naysayers. Sidebar rant: In the Reddit comments there is always debate about how Yards Allowed is the worst metric ever because some D's are designed to bend but not break, and allowing yards doesn't lose a game, only allowing points. I get it, I enjoy watching Bend, Don't Break defenses at work.
So if you want to leave this out, just leave it out. The data shows that the top defenses are pretty stingy all around, no matter what. But in my opinion, when Pat Mahomes puts up a yard passing game, the opposing team should be docked some points for letting him do it, so a small negative value for Yards Allowed seems appropriate.
Determine the average fantasy points scored by the D this year and use that as the baseline fantasy strength of the defense. You can go the third level step of factoring out the match-up strength of the games the D played this year if you want. You then calculate the average fantasy points allowed for the D against each offense. I find the average D fantasy points allowed for all offenses, and compare each offenses D average to get an offensive match-up strength factor.
You then multiply the D baseline strength by O match-up strength to get a projection for each D. This technique helped me chose Chicago two weeks ago and Pit last week. I LOVE your thought process.
Maybe I am spending too much time on my analysis, because it is really funny. I used the latter approach, and 2 weeks ago I wound up with Chicago …last week I wound up strongly with Pit — we are getting to the same conclusion, however you are spending less time doing so ….
Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.
Menu Rotogrinders. FD Single Entry Series. Sign In Sign Up. Blinders 11 years ago. Link Quote Reply. Cameron RG Premium Member. This system is not meant to stand alone, but go along with another scoring system as a way to get more in depth. Defenses can score a wide range of points in a game, all dependent on how well they play. They can score negative points if they allow too many points in a game, but can score lots of points if they keep the game low scoring and have lots of interceptions and sacks.
A good score for a defense during a game is around Good defenses will achieve this score, while weaker defensive teams may only score around 4 or less points. Defenses can gain points by performing certain action on the football field. Some of these actions include sacks, fumble recoveries, tackles, and interceptions. Each action will gain the defense a certain amount of points. For example, a sack is worth one point, while an interception is worth two, The more impressive the action, the more points the defense will earn.
0コメント